Modified Hyperbolic Decline
Spreadsheet
29 rows x 5 columns
| A | B | C | D | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modified Hyperbolic Decline Forecast | ||||
| 2 | Inputs | ||||
| 3 | Initial Rate (qi) | 1000 | bbl/day | ||
| 4 | Initial Decline (Di) | 0.08 | 1/month | ||
| 5 | Terminal Decline (Dlim) | 0.005 | 1/month (6%/year) | ||
| 6 | b-exponent | 0.8 | - | ||
| 7 | Economic Limit | 10 | bbl/day | ||
| 8 | Comparison: Modified Hyp vs Pure Arps | ||||
| 9 | t (months) | ModHyp Rate | Arps Rate | ModHyp Np (Mstb) | Arps Np (Mstb) |
| 10 | 6 | 666.1620488 | 666.1620488 | 4.876982777 | 4.876982777 |
| 11 | 12 | 490.5092189 | 490.5092189 | 8.298731313 | 8.298731313 |
| 12 | 24 | 312.4736774 | 312.4736774 | 12.97292213 | 12.97292213 |
| 13 | 36 | 224.4915258 | 224.4915258 | 16.14249993 | 16.14249993 |
| 14 | 60 | 139.2974922 | 139.2974922 | 20.3625086 | 20.3625086 |
| 15 | 120 | 67.11975206 | 67.11975206 | 26.08753451 | 26.08753451 |
| 16 | 180 | 42.46142734 | 42.46142734 | 29.2739331 | 29.2739331 |
| 17 | 240 | 30.38333831 | 30.39281145 | 31.42333234 | 31.42335029 |
| 18 | 360 | 16.67472961 | 18.78589631 | 34.16505408 | 34.2741908 |
| 19 | EUR Comparison | ||||
| 20 | Model | EUR (Mstb) | Notes | ||
| 21 | Modified Hyperbolic | 35.5 | Bounded by terminal decline | ||
| 22 | Pure Arps (b=0.8) | 37.61830184 | May overestimate | ||
| 23 | EUR Difference | 2.11830184 | Mstb | ||
| 24 | Terminal Decline Sensitivity | ||||
| 25 | Dlim (1/month) | EUR (Mstb) | % of Pure Arps | ||
| 26 | 0.002 | 37.61830184 | 100 | ||
| 27 | 0.005 | 35.5 | 94.36895942 | ||
| 28 | 0.008 | 33.13293374 | 88.07663323 | ||
| 29 | 0.01 | 31.76982212 | 84.45310014 |
Description
Modified Hyperbolic decline model that transitions from hyperbolic to exponential decline at a specified terminal decline rate. This addresses the unrealistic EUR predictions from pure hyperbolic decline with high b-factors.
Model Behavior:
- Early time: Hyperbolic decline (faster decline)
- Late time: Exponential decline (terminal Dlim)
- Prevents infinite EUR from b > 0
How to use this blueprint
- In Excel, go to the Petroleum Office ribbon tab and click Blueprint Manager
- Search for Modified Hyperbolic Decline
- Click on the blueprint to preview the spreadsheet template
- Click Insert to place it into your worksheet. Modify the input values to match your data.