EUR Sensitivity Analysis

Description

Sensitivity analysis of Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) to Arps decline parameters. Understanding parameter uncertainty impact on EUR is critical for reserves estimation and economic analysis.

Key Sensitivities:

  • b-factor: Higher b = slower decline = higher EUR
  • Initial Decline (Di): Higher Di = faster decline = lower EUR
  • Economic Limit: Lower limit = longer production = higher EUR

Spreadsheet Preview

34 rows x 4 columns

Required Functions

PO.DCA.Arps.EUR

Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) to an economic rate limit for Arps decline, [L3]. Returns cumulative production up to the time the rate reaches the economic limit.

PO.DCA.Arps.Time

Time to reach an economic rate limit for Arps decline, [T]. Returns the time when the production rate falls to the specified economic limit.

PO.DCA.Arps.Prod

Calculates cumulative production using Arps (1945) decline curve, [L3]. Units of volume [L3] and time [T] must be consistent. Use b=0 for exponential, 0<b<1 for hyperbolic, b=1 for harmonic.

How to use this blueprint
  1. In Excel, go to the Petroleum Office ribbon tab and click Blueprint Manager
  2. Search for EUR Sensitivity Analysis
  3. Click on the blueprint to preview the spreadsheet template
  4. Click Insert to place it into your worksheet. Modify the input values to match your data.

Related Theory

Arps Decline Curve Analysis - Exponential, Hyperbolic, and Harmonic Models

Complete theory and equations for classical Arps decline curves including exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic models for production forecasting and EUR estimation.

Ansah-Knowles-Buba (AKB) Decline Model

Semi-analytical decline model for gas wells under boundary-dominated flow, derived from material balance principles

Decline Curve Statistics

Objective functions for evaluating decline curve model fit quality including SSE, log-space SSE, and weighted variants

Field Production Profiles

Aggregate production modeling for multi-well field development using parametric and discrete convolution approaches

Modified Hyperbolic Decline Model

Hybrid decline model combining hyperbolic and exponential decline with a terminal decline rate for realistic long-term production forecasting.

Related Blueprints

EUR Calculator

Calculate Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) for different economic limits and decline parameters. Essential for reserves estimation and economic analysis.

Modified Hyperbolic Decline

Modified Hyperbolic decline model that transitions from hyperbolic to exponential decline at a specified terminal decline rate. This addresses the unrealistic EUR predictions from pure hyperbolic decline with high b-factors.

Arps Decline Forecast

Decline curve analysis using the Arps hyperbolic decline equation. Calculates rate and cumulative production over time for production forecasting.

Decline Model Comparison

Compare multiple decline curve models for the same well. Different models may be more appropriate depending on reservoir type and flow regime. Arps is standard for conventional, Duong for unconventional transient, and PLE for tight/shale.

Decline Diagnostics Analysis

Diagnostic analysis for decline curve interpretation using derivative-based methods. These tools help identify flow regimes and validate decline model selection.

Tags:
declineeursensitivityarpsb-factordecline rate

Need a custom calculation? Request a Blueprint

An unhandled error has occurred. Reload X