EUR Sensitivity Analysis
Spreadsheet
34 rows x 4 columns
| A | B | C | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EUR Sensitivity Analysis - Arps Decline | |||
| 2 | Base Case Parameters | |||
| 3 | Initial Rate (qi) | 1000 | bbl/day | |
| 4 | Initial Decline (Di) | 0.06 | 1/month | |
| 5 | b-exponent | 0.5 | - | |
| 6 | Economic Limit | 10 | bbl/day | |
| 7 | ||||
| 8 | Base Case EUR | |||
| 9 | EUR (to qlimit) | 30 | Mstb | |
| 10 | Time to Limit | 25 | years | |
| 11 | ||||
| 12 | EUR Sensitivity to b-exponent | |||
| 13 | b | EUR (Mstb) | % of Base | Time to Limit (yrs) |
| 14 | 0 | 16.5 | 55 | 6.396069703 |
| 15 | 0.3 | 22.86164959 | 76.20549865 | 13.8012579 |
| 16 | 0.5 | 30 | 100 | 25 |
| 17 | 0.7 | 41.60063094 | 138.6687698 | 47.85488951 |
| 18 | 1 | 76.75283643 | 255.8427881 | 137.5 |
| 19 | ||||
| 20 | EUR Sensitivity to Initial Decline (Di) | |||
| 21 | Di (1/month) | EUR (Mstb) | % of Base | 5-Year Np (Mstb) |
| 22 | 0.03 | 60 | 200 | 31.57894737 |
| 23 | 0.05 | 36 | 120 | 24 |
| 24 | 0.06 | 30 | 100 | 21.42857143 |
| 25 | 0.08 | 22.5 | 75 | 17.64705882 |
| 26 | 0.1 | 18 | 60 | 15 |
| 27 | ||||
| 28 | EUR Sensitivity to Economic Limit | |||
| 29 | qlimit (bbl/d) | EUR (Mstb) | % of Base | Life (years) |
| 30 | 5 | 30.97631073 | 103.2543691 | 36.50593229 |
| 31 | 10 | 30 | 100 | 25 |
| 32 | 20 | 28.61928813 | 95.39762708 | 16.86407726 |
| 33 | 30 | 27.55983064 | 91.86610214 | 13.2597297 |
| 34 | 50 | 25.87977341 | 86.26591136 | 9.644822097 |
Description
Sensitivity analysis of Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) to Arps decline parameters. Understanding parameter uncertainty impact on EUR is critical for reserves estimation and economic analysis.
Key Sensitivities:
- b-factor: Higher b = slower decline = higher EUR
- Initial Decline (Di): Higher Di = faster decline = lower EUR
- Economic Limit: Lower limit = longer production = higher EUR
How to use this blueprint
- In Excel, go to the Petroleum Office ribbon tab and click Blueprint Manager
- Search for EUR Sensitivity Analysis
- Click on the blueprint to preview the spreadsheet template
- Click Insert to place it into your worksheet. Modify the input values to match your data.