DCA Auto-Fit Model Comparison
Spreadsheet
25 rows x 4 columns
| A | B | C | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCA Auto-Fit Model Comparison | |||
| 2 | Settings | |||
| 3 | Economic Limit | 50 | bbl/month | |
| 4 | ||||
| 5 | Fitted Parameters | |||
| 6 | Arps | Duong | ||
| 7 | Param 1 | 3178.597355 | 2741.073737 | |
| 8 | Param 2 | 0.1366772263 | 2.193712404E-05 | |
| 9 | Param 3 | 0.7751422838 | 1.46438701 | |
| 10 | Param 4 | 1.352718923 | ||
| 11 | R² | 0.9998182108 | 0.9952611425 | |
| 12 | EUR (bbl) | 62767.74571 | 66918.11425 | |
| 13 | ||||
| 14 | Production History | |||
| 15 | Month | Rate (bbl/mo) | Arps Fit | Duong Fit |
| 16 | 1 | 2800 | 2791.360131 | 2741.073759 |
| 17 | 3 | 2200 | 2226.41131 | 2353.656873 |
| 18 | 6 | 1700 | 1684.811055 | 1698.145527 |
| 19 | 9 | 1350 | 1339.866903 | 1316.701336 |
| 20 | 12 | 1100 | 1103.070019 | 1073.085653 |
| 21 | 18 | 800 | 802.3284742 | 780.632079 |
| 22 | 24 | 620 | 621.659974 | 611.2355877 |
| 23 | 30 | 500 | 502.4454206 | 500.728349 |
| 24 | 36 | 420 | 418.5475182 | 422.9882411 |
| 25 | 48 | 310 | 309.3442799 | 320.978779 |
Description
Auto-fit Arps hyperbolic and Duong decline models to the same production data, then compare R² and EUR to select the best model. Arps works well for conventional reservoirs; Duong is better for unconventional (tight/shale) with linear flow.
Model selection: Higher R² = better fit. If both fit well, compare EUR — Arps with b > 1 can overestimate reserves.
Workflow
- Inputs: Monthly production history (time in months, rate in bbl/month)
- Step 1: Auto-fit Arps parameters (Qi, Di, b) and Duong parameters (q1, qInf, a, m)
- Step 2: Compute fitted rates and R² for each model
- Step 3: Calculate EUR to economic limit for each model
- Output: Best model selection based on R² and EUR comparison
How to use this blueprint
- In Excel, go to the Petroleum Office ribbon tab and click Blueprint Manager
- Search for DCA Auto-Fit Model Comparison
- Click on the blueprint to preview the spreadsheet template
- Click Insert to place it into your worksheet. Modify the input values to match your data.