Arps Decline Forecast

Description

Decline curve analysis using the Arps hyperbolic decline equation. Calculates rate and cumulative production over time for production forecasting.

Parameters:

  • qi: Initial production rate
  • Di: Initial decline rate (nominal)
  • b: Hyperbolic exponent (0=exponential, 0.5=hyperbolic, 1=harmonic)

Spreadsheet Preview

17 rows x 4 columns

Required Functions

PO.DCA.Arps.Rate

Calculates rate using Arps (1945) decline curve, [L3/T]. Units of volume [L3] and time [T] must be consistent. Use b=0 for exponential, 0<b<1 for hyperbolic, b=1 for harmonic.

PO.DCA.Arps.Prod

Calculates cumulative production using Arps (1945) decline curve, [L3]. Units of volume [L3] and time [T] must be consistent. Use b=0 for exponential, 0<b<1 for hyperbolic, b=1 for harmonic.

How to use this blueprint
  1. In Excel, go to the Petroleum Office ribbon tab and click Blueprint Manager
  2. Search for Arps Decline Forecast
  3. Click on the blueprint to preview the spreadsheet template
  4. Click Insert to place it into your worksheet. Modify the input values to match your data.

Related Theory

Arps Decline Curve Analysis - Exponential, Hyperbolic, and Harmonic Models

Complete theory and equations for classical Arps decline curves including exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic models for production forecasting and EUR estimation.

Ansah-Knowles-Buba (AKB) Decline Model

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Objective functions for evaluating decline curve model fit quality including SSE, log-space SSE, and weighted variants

Field Production Profiles

Aggregate production modeling for multi-well field development using parametric and discrete convolution approaches

Modified Hyperbolic Decline Model

Hybrid decline model combining hyperbolic and exponential decline with a terminal decline rate for realistic long-term production forecasting.

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Compare multiple decline curve models for the same well. Different models may be more appropriate depending on reservoir type and flow regime. Arps is standard for conventional, Duong for unconventional transient, and PLE for tight/shale.

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Decline curve forecast using the Duong model, specifically designed for unconventional reservoirs exhibiting transient linear flow. The Duong model captures the power-law behavior common in tight oil and shale gas wells.

EUR Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis of Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) to Arps decline parameters. Understanding parameter uncertainty impact on EUR is critical for reserves estimation and economic analysis.

EUR Calculator

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Tags:
declinearpshyperbolicexponentialforecastproduction

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