Arps Decline Forecast
Spreadsheet
17 rows x 4 columns
| A | B | C | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arps Decline Curve Analysis | |||
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Inputs | |||
| 4 | Initial Rate (qi) | 30000 | bbl/month | |
| 5 | Initial Decline (Di) | 0.05 | 1/month | |
| 6 | b-exponent | 0.5 | (0=exp, 1=harmonic) | |
| 7 | ||||
| 8 | Production Forecast | |||
| 9 | t (months) | q (bbl/month) | Np (Mstb) | Decline % |
| 10 | 0 | 30000 | 0 | |
| 11 | 6 | 22684.31002 | 156.5217391 | 0.2438563327 |
| 12 | 12 | 17751.47929 | 276.9230769 | 0.4082840237 |
| 13 | 18 | 14268.72771 | 372.4137931 | 0.5243757432 |
| 14 | 24 | 11718.75 | 450 | 0.609375 |
| 15 | 36 | 8310.249307 | 568.4210526 | 0.7229916898 |
| 16 | 48 | 6198.347107 | 654.5454545 | 0.7933884298 |
| 17 | 60 | 4800 | 720 | 0.84 |
Description
Decline curve analysis using the Arps hyperbolic decline equation. Calculates rate and cumulative production over time for production forecasting.
Parameters:
- qi: Initial production rate
- Di: Initial decline rate (nominal)
- b: Hyperbolic exponent (0=exponential, 0.5=hyperbolic, 1=harmonic)
Units: rate is bbl/month against a time column in months, so the cumulative column is a true volume in bbl (shown as Mstb). The Arps functions are unit-agnostic — rate and time must share the same time base or the cumulative is out by the ratio between them.
How to use this blueprint
- In Excel, go to the Petroleum Office ribbon tab and click Blueprint Manager
- Search for Arps Decline Forecast
- Click on the blueprint to preview
- Click Insert to place it into your worksheet. Modify the input values to match your data.