Well-Program Economics — Scenario Table, NPV, IRR, Payout

The economics of a small Texas horizontal program (5–10 wells), modelled month by month, with one scenario per row of an Excel Table. Each row carries its assumptions — prices, D&C, LOE, type-curve factor, well count, working and net revenue interest, discount rate — and, in the same row, its NPV, IRR, payout, PV/I, EUR per well and net cash. Change a row or add one at the bottom and its results fill in. The default assumptions are illustrative, not a price deck.


Wells come online one every few months and are drilled the month before. Each follows an Arps hyperbolic type curve switching to an exponential terminal decline, sampled at mid-month, with gas from a constant GOR, and produces until its operating margin reaches zero (the economic limit) or a life cap, then is plugged. Net revenue is the NRI share; Texas severance (4.6 % oil, 7.5 % gas) is charged on the oil and gas value and ad valorem on net revenue; costs and capital are the WI share. IRR is the monthly IRR annualised, found by bracketing the economic root so that the spurious negative root a plugging cost creates at low prices is not mistaken for it.

A partner is a row: its own WI and NRI scale the costs and the revenue, so a 40 % partner at the same revenue-to-working-interest ratio earns exactly 40 % of the base NPV. One annual escalation rate applies to prices and operating costs. Price decks, risked or Monte Carlo economics, reserves booking and fiscal regimes beyond the Texas taxes are not in version 1.

The Cash Flow sheet is the audit of one case, picked by number on the Scenarios sheet: the program year by year, from the same monthly engine, with lines that show the annual rows reconcile to it.

The engine is workbook LAMBDAs, named in the catalog's style so they can be promoted: PO.ECON.Arps.Di, PO.ECON.Arps.Rate, PO.ECON.Arps.Time, PO.ECON.NPV.Monthly, PO.ECON.IRR.Monthly and PO.ECON.Payout, and the MODEL.* functions that bind this workbook's assumptions.

Inputs

Named cells you can edit — every result recalculates from them. A Scenarios row can override any of its assumption columns with a number or a formula.

Name Description Default Unit
EC_Wells Wells in the program 8 wells
EC_FirstOnline, EC_Spacing First well online, months between wells 3, 1 month, months
EC_LifeCap Longest producing life of a well 360 months
EC_IP Initial oil rate, one well 800 bbl/d
EC_b, EC_Dei, EC_Dterm Arps exponent, initial and terminal decline 1.0, 65 %, 8 % —, per year
EC_GOR, EC_TC Gas–oil ratio, type-curve factor 1500, 1.0 scf/bbl, ×
EC_Oil, EC_OilDiff, EC_Gas, EC_GasDiff Prices and differentials 70, 1.5, 3.0, 1.0 $/bbl, $/MMBtu
EC_Esc Escalation, prices and operating costs 0 % per year
EC_WI, EC_NRI Working and net revenue interest 100 %, 75 % —
EC_SevOil, EC_SevGas, EC_AdVal Texas severance and ad valorem taxes 4.6 %, 7.5 %, 2.5 % of value
EC_DC Drilling and completion, per well 7.0 $MM
EC_LOE, EC_LOEVar, EC_Gath, EC_PA Fixed LOE, variable LOE, gathering, plugging 8000, 4, 0.5, 150000 $/well-month, $/bbl, $/Mcf, $
EC_Disc, EC_Hurdle Discount rate, IRR hurdle 10 %, 15 % per year
EC_Pick Case shown on Cash Flow (0 = base case) 0 —

4 sheets, shown with the values the file opens with

A
1 Well-program economics — one scenario per row
2
3 What this is
4 The economics of a small Texas horizontal program (5–10 wells), modelled month by month. An Excel Table holds one scenario per row: its assumptions, and in the same row its NPV, IRR, payout, PV/I, EUR and net cash. Change a row, or add one, and its results follow. The default assumptions are illustrative, not a price deck. Every formula is plain Excel; no add-in is needed.
5
6 Sheets
7 Assumptions — the base case. Blue cells on a yellow background are inputs: program, type curve, prices, interests, Texas severance (4.6 % oil, 7.5 % gas) and ad valorem, costs and the discount rate.
8 Scenarios — the Table. An assumption cell is a number or a formula on the base case, so a row that does not override a value follows the Assumptions sheet. Result columns are calculated columns calling named LAMBDAs (Formulas › Name Manager, MODEL.* and PO.ECON.*) that run the whole monthly model on that row's assumptions. The picker at the top (C2) sends any row to Cash Flow.
9 Cash Flow — the audit of one case: the program year by year (volumes, revenue, taxes, costs, capital, net and discounted cash, cumulative), for the base case or the row picked on Scenarios. The annual rows are sums of the same monthly engine, and the sheet shows that they reconcile to it.
10
11 The model
12 Wells come online one every few months and are drilled the month before. Each well follows an Arps hyperbolic type curve switching to an exponential terminal decline, sampled at mid-month, with gas from a constant GOR. A well produces until its operating margin reaches zero (the economic limit, from start-of-life prices) or the life cap, then is plugged the following month. Net revenue is the NRI share; severance is charged on the oil and gas value and ad valorem on net revenue; costs and capital are the WI share. NPV discounts end-of-month cash flows at the annual rate; IRR is the monthly IRR annualised; PV/I is NPV divided by the discounted capital.
13
14 What version 1 takes in, and what it leaves out
15 Escalation is in: one annual rate on prices and operating costs (Assumptions), applied month by month. Partners are in as rows: a partner's case is a row with its own WI and NRI, which scales the costs by WI and the revenue by NRI — a 40 % partner at the same revenue-to-working-interest ratio earns exactly 40 % of the base NPV. Price decks are out: a deck is a table of prices per scenario, which does not fit one row, so a scenario has flat prices (plus escalation).
16 Also out: risked or Monte Carlo economics, reserves booking, fiscal regimes beyond the Texas taxes shown, and any carry or reversion in the interests.
17
18 Reading the results
19 Negative NPV, and an IRR below the hurdle or with no root, are flagged red in the Table. IRR is "n/a" when NPV never falls through zero between −5 % and +45 % a month; payout is "none" when cumulative cash never recovers. The Cash Flow sheet shows 35 years; a program that runs longer says so there, but the Table always uses the whole life.
Opens inWorks in any Excel: formulas and named LAMBDAs only, no add-in needed.
FileWellProgramEconomics.xlsx, 35 KB
CategoryEconomics
For agents and tools Structure (.json) · Descriptor (.md)
Tags:
economicswell-programscenario-analysisexcel-tablenpvirrpayoutpv-ieurtexasseverance-taxworking-interestarps

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