# Probability of an oilfield discovery

## Input(s)

$$K_{i}$$: Number of Fields Discovered up to date in Selected Field Class (dimensionless)

$$K_{o i}$$: Estimated Total Number of Fields in Selected Field Class in the Region (dimensionless)

$$A_{i}$$: Total Area of Discovered Fields in Selected Field Class (acres)

$$W$$: Number of Exploration Wells Drilled up to date (dimensionless)

B: Total Area of the Region (acres)

$$J$$: Relative Efficiency of Scientific Exploration compared with Random Drilling (dimensionless)

$$K_{i \_a d d}$$: Number of Fields will be discovered with additional number of Exploration Wells (dimensionless)

$$W_{\text {add }}$$: Additional Number of Exploration Wells will be Drilled (dimensionless)

## Output(s)

$$P_{D}$$: Probability of an Oilfield Discovery (fraction)

## Formula(s)

$\begin{gathered} \mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{oi}}=\frac{\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i}}}{\left(1-\mathrm{e}^{-\mathrm{JA} \mathrm{A}_{\mathrm{i}} \mathrm{W} / \mathrm{B}}\right)} \\ \mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i} \_ \text {add }}=\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{oi}}\left(1-\mathrm{e}^{-\mathrm{JA}_{\mathrm{i}}\left(\mathrm{W}+\mathrm{W}_{\text {add }} / \mathrm{B}\right.}\right) \\ \mathrm{P}_{\mathrm{D}}=\frac{\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i} \_ \text {add }}-\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i}}}{\mathrm{W}_{\text {add }}} \end{gathered}$

Note: All Formulas need to be applied in each Field Class separately.

## Reference(s)

Serpen, U., Petroleum Economics, Course Notes, ITU Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, (2008) Page: 79.

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